Political democracy is an interesting game; especially when the rules and principles are being sincerely protected and practiced by all the practitioners and stakeholders. And again, democracy is a game that allows every citizen to have the right to participate in the game, freedom of speech, human rights, equality and justice, freedom of association, equality and justice, freedom of want, freedom from disease, freedom to vote and be voted for and so on and so forth. Democracy succeeded in many advanced and emerging nations. USA, UK, France, Brazil, India, Kenya, Namibia, Ghana and many more.
Political power tussle that is rocking the ruling party APC is one of the beauties of democracy and it can happen even in advanced democracies. The political tussles between Donald Trump and Bolton former security advisor to the president Trump (both of them are Republicans) in USA is an excellent example.
The incoming of Gubernatorial election in September 2020 in Edo state is the root cause of the party’s current leadership crises. Politically speaking, its the responsibility of PMB to meditate and reconcile the party members. Because political democracy has competing values, interest and ambition. Also, it is a game of alignment upon alignment among its practitioners. It is a game of negotiation, persuasion, reconciliation and settlement. So, values protection, interest protection and competition on one’s ambition are flavors or recipe of the Democratic game.
The fighting and witch hunting are totally prohibited; but coercion in a smaller form can be used to instill discipline. Therefore, this writing appeals to the warring factions in APC not to use force against any interest group in the crises. The crises in politics had happened during second republic in PRP and GNPP of which to date the crises were not resolved even after the death of late Malam Aminu Kano leader of PRP and late Alhaji Ibrahim Waziri leader of GNPP.
The political power skirmishes in APC are a perception (which to this writing is a mirage) of 2023 and the calculations seem to have started (so) early. Because Nigeria is yet to attain stable democracy (Nigeria is still within the political democratic transition level). This writing strongly views that the political calculations and application of strategies on 2023 are supposed to start in the next two years not now (less than one year two months of party’s winning elections of 2019). This means that if (for example) PMB succeeds within the next two or three years in eradicating or tackling insecurity, to have stable power supply, eradication of corruption and looting, to create massive employment of the youths and economic buoyancy in Nigeria; this writing doubts if there is any Nigerian that can compete and stand for election with his party. If PMB succeeds in tackling Nigeria’s problems in the next 37 months which the past ruling party (PDP) failed to succeed in the last 16 years; this writing is afraid that Nigeria may head to a one party state. But as things are currently going on, and if there are no positive changes in the common man’s life in Nigeria; APC will fail woefully in 2023. Former President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan and his party PDP lost the 2015 elections because of his failure to tackle insecurity in northern states of Nigeria. Hence, the same thing can happen in the coming of elections of 2023. Security is paramount in human life.
Sincerely speaking, the current performances and achievements of PMB and his party are still below expectations of Nigerians. To he who was given much— much is expected.
Take note that stagflation (unemployment, inflation, industrial low production and economic aridity among citizens) still exists in Nigeria. And many Nigerians are accumulating anger and PMB and APC party is losing about 70 to 80% of support from or within its soft theorem areas of 19 northern states. While, the swing theorem areas of the western region of the nation can change decisions some months, days or hours before the elections of 2023.
The APC party can go (completely) into political eclipse or even into political oblivion if they continue without solving or reconciling the crises rocking the party. The opposition PDP will try every strategy to uproot the APC’s support nation wide. There is strong allegation of political colouration in the ongoing insecurity in the country. APC/PMB must do anything humanly possible to solve the problem of insecurity and economic aridity or generally stagflation in Nigerian nation. Otherwise, this writing’s prediction of 2023 may probe right.
Time will tell!
AbbatiBako, psc,bsis,Kent,UK, political strategy and communication consultant, IPRC, Nigeria