Politics is a game of calculations and the calculations must be ahead of time, because timing is the most important element in political practice. And again, politics is a game of negotiation, reconciliation, lobbying and intelligence gathering on how to outsmart your opponent in anticipation of election day.
The election year of 2023 is around the corner (preparation will start by 2021) and every political party will start gathering data on how to apply the right strategies to win the coming elections of 2023.
The current president Buhari was an opponent to former president Jonathan in 2015, he defeated Jonathan to occupied the most powerful seat of authority in the nation in the same year.
President Buhari has recently appointed former president Ebele Jonathan to mediate the warring factions in Mali to avoid escalation of insurgency and political barracudas, hence if settlement is not reached on the crisis in Mali it will affect not only Nigeria but the entire West African sub-region.
Can we consider this assignment of Jonathan as a diplomatic mission or a political calculation for the election year 2023? Former president Jonathan supported APC in gubernatorial election in Bayelsa State despite the fact that he is still a PDP card carrying member.
Some analysts see the possibility that Jonathan might cross carpet from PDP to APC and contest for the Presidency in 2023. While others opine that the whole issue is about diplomatic mission to resolve the political crises in Mali, period!
Others think that the political romance between PMB and former president Jonathan is another opportunity for the S/South to produce another candidate to contest for the presidential position from the region considering the patience, patriotism and loyalty shown by the president Jonathan in 2015 when he accepted the defeat and handed over the presidency to the current president Muhammad Buhari without any skirmishes.
But this writing is of the opinion that the whole issue is about diplomatic mission to resolve the political crises in Mali period. Because of the fact that the next president may likely be produced from the S/West or Northern part of the country.
The APC may likely produce its presidential contestant from S/West and PDP may have option of her presidential material to come from Northern part of the country and Vice presidential material to come from S/East or South/South in 2023.
Subsequently, if Ahmed Tinubu clinches the ticket of APC as a presidential candidate and as a Muslim; he will presumably select his vice presidential material from the north’s Christian minority to avoid a Muslim-Muslim ticket; the defeat of APC in 2023 is likely. Because the north have about 70% of voters and an alliance with S/South or S/East in PDP may result to the victory of PDP.
This means that the north and S/South and S/East maybe the soft theorem for PDP and battle ground areas for APC; the S/West will remain the only soft theorem for APC and battle ground area for PDP.
So, this writing opined that the only option APC may have to win 2023 presidential election is to select a Muslim woman as its vice presidential contestant. This may lessen the feeling of the north to have protest votes against APC and elect PDP candidate in the presidential contest of 2023.
Though even this option may not give desired result. Whatever the case maybe for APC; the issue of insecurity and stagflation in the north maybe a threat to win elections in 2023. This is a bitter pill to swallow unless miracle is perform; voters in the north are accumulating anger and wait anxiously for the year 2023.
Political calculation indicates that there maybe no swing theorem areas in 2023 presidential election and there must be massive protest votes from the north against APC.
For APC to succeed, the party must make a serious political calculation, extensive and deep analysis on the coming election year of 2023.
Abbati Bako, psc,basis, Kent,UK (political strategist and analyst, IPRC)