World Population: Nigeria Projected to Overtake US by 2051

As the world celebrates the 2024 World Population Day themed “Interwoven Lives, Threads of Hope: Ending Inequalities in Sexual and Reproductive Health and Rights” today, it presents an opportunity for the Nigerian government to enhance its population data gathering, analysis, and use. This will enable everyone to exercise their human rights and reach their full potential.

First observed in 1990, World Population Day highlights the challenges posed by overpopulation and its potential to hinder human progress. It also raises awareness about the rights and choices of marginalized groups who need to be counted, according to the UN.

Population experts note that the rapid increase in the world’s population has significant implications for human welfare and the planet. India is estimated to have the second-largest population after China, contributing 18.5 percent of the world’s population, while India follows closely with 17.7 percent. India is projected to soon overtake China as the world’s most populous country. The United States, however, has a share of 4.3 percent, as estimated by Worldometer.

As of 2023, Nigeria’s population was estimated at around 226.2 million. The country’s actual population figures remain uncertain, as the last census was conducted in 2006. A census scheduled for May 2023 was rescheduled, and the administration of President Bola Tinubu has yet to announce new dates.

According to the World Population Review, Nigeria is projected to overtake the US to become the world’s third most populous country by 2051. Africa’s most populous country is expected to grow to 380.20 million by then, reaching 385.60 million in 2052, and 390.93 million in 2053.

Unfortunately, stark wealth inequality divides Nigeria. About two-thirds of its population live below the poverty line. In 2018, the World Poverty Clock named Nigeria as the global poverty capital with 86.7 million citizens. A joint study in 2022 by the National Bureau of Statistics, the National Social Safety-Nets Coordinating Office, the UNDP, UNICEF, and the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative, listed 133 million Nigerians as living in multidimensional poverty. In 2023, the World Bank projected that seven million more would be added to that figure due to the cancellation of petrol subsidies and the merger of the naira exchange rates.

Without accurate population figures and corresponding plans to ensure sufficient resources, Nigeria faces a cycle of overconsumption and ecological disruption. “More people means an increased demand for food, water, housing, energy, healthcare, transportation and more,” according to the Population Media Centre, which leads to “ecological degradation, increased conflicts, and a higher risk of large-scale disasters like pandemics.”

A population spike strains available resources, resulting in high poverty levels, decreased biodiversity, increased pollution, and exacerbated climate change. Alarmingly, Nigeria’s Climate Risk profile predicts that 20 percent of the population will be exposed to heat waves detrimental to human health.

Contributing to Nigeria’s unregulated population growth are child marriages, lack of education, misconceptions about family planning, politicization of population counts, and religious or cultural norms preventing many women from accessing reproductive healthcare.

The government and relevant stakeholders must develop and implement a strategic population plan to ensure accurate population counts and equitable distribution of resources. Religious organizations and traditional institutions should collaborate with health agencies to promote reproductive rights awareness, support girl-child education, and ensure access to family planning.

This article is sourced from The Punch Editorial Board, with minor edits and adaptations by The Spectacles for clarity and readability.